Ag Econ Update: Dan Basse, AgResource | July, 2026

Ag Economic Outlook: Bullish Fundamentals Remain in Place

Despite recent volatility, Dan Basse remains optimistic about the agricultural outlook over the next 12 to 18 months. While grain markets have faced pressure as weather concerns eased, underlying fundamentals continue to point toward tightening supplies and stronger long-term price potential.

On the crop side, hot and dry weather across parts of the U.S. has trimmed corn and soybean yield expectations, while Europe is facing significant production challenges due to extreme heat and drought. These issues are contributing to a tightening global grain balance sheet and increasing demand for imports.

Basse also highlighted several supportive factors for grain markets, including strong export demand, expanding biofuel and soybean crush capacity, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Black Sea region, and weather risks tied to a potential Super El Niño. Together, these factors could help drive a grain market rally into 2027.

In livestock markets, Basse expects cattle prices to remain historically strong, although the reopening of the southern border and gradual herd rebuilding could create some moderation from recent record highs.

Overall, the outlook suggests improving conditions for grain producers, continued strength across protein markets, and growing confidence that the agricultural economy is moving beyond its recent challenges.

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