Ag Econ Update: Arlan Suderman, StoneX Group Inc. | April 10, 2026
Markets move sharply as headlines and global uncertainty continue to shape the agricultural economy. In this Ag Econ Update, Tyne Morgan is joined by Arlan Suderman, StoneX Chief Commodities Economist, to discuss what is driving grain, livestock, and input markets — and how producers can approach marketing decisions as the 2026 growing season unfolds.
Below are the key takeaways from the conversation.
🔑 Key Takeaways from the Video
Grain Markets Respond to Headlines
Grain markets react day-to-day to headlines, especially those tied to conflict in the Middle East and concerns around the Strait of Hormuz, an important shipping route for energy and fertilizer.
Suderman explains that disruptions in this region reduce energy and fertilizer availability, creating long‑term inflation risk and lowering future production capacity. While this is not an immediate supply issue, it remains a concern beneath the surface.
Even if conflict eases and shipping routes reopen, Suderman notes that energy and fertilizer prices take time to normalize, keeping longer‑term risks in play.
Large Supplies Limit Price Rallies
Current supply levels make sustained price rallies difficult unless new threats emerge.
- Corn: A carryout near 2.1 billion bushels limits upside potential based on historical pricing patterns.
- Wheat: Domestic and global supplies remain large, even with drought affecting parts of the U.S. hard red winter wheat belt.
- Soybeans: Supplies remain adequate, though recent biofuel policy announcements provide some support to the soybean complex.
When crude oil prices fall or war‑related concerns fade, Suderman says markets often pull back.
Inflation Still Influences Markets
Inflation risk continues to affect commodity markets, even when it does not dominate headlines.
Suderman explains that when investment funds believe inflation matters, they buy commodities with the strongest historical connection to inflation — namely grains and oilseeds, followed closely by energy. When inflation fears ease, funds tend to exit just as quickly.
Weather Creates Potential — but Not Today's Focus
Weather remains one of the few forces capable of pushing prices higher if it threatens production.
Suderman notes forecasts calling for El Niño, possibly a strong one, but reminds producers that weather models can be wrong.
Based on his comments, El Niño typically:
- Favors good growing conditions in the U.S.
- Increases risk in the North China Plain
- Raises concerns for Australia
- Looks relatively favorable for Brazil
He says this makes it difficult to worry about corn or soybeans right now, though wheat may become more sensitive depending on Southern Hemisphere conditions.
Wheat Markets Watch the World, Not Just the U.S.
Poor wheat conditions in Texas and Oklahoma do not move prices significantly because global markets focus elsewhere.
Suderman points out that:
- The Black Sea region sets world wheat prices
- Markets react more strongly to Europe and the Black Sea than to U.S. conditions
- The U.S. holds a significant wheat surplus
The U.S. ends the marketing year with roughly 58% of a year’s supply of hard red winter wheat, allowing the market to absorb losses unless global production issues develop.
Biofuels Support Long-Term
Biofuel policy plays a key role in long‑term demand, particularly for soybeans.
Suderman explains that finalized Renewable Fuel Standard volumes do not create an immediate rally but help raise the price floor, limit downside risk, and increase sensitivity to weather‑related scares.
For corn, year‑round E15 does not solve current oversupply but supports long‑term domestic demand, especially as global fuel shortages increase ethanol exports.
China Trade May Shift Beyond Soybeans
Suderman cautions against expecting large soybean purchases from China.
U.S. soybeans land in China at a higher cost than Brazilian soybeans, making them less attractive to crushers. Any purchases China makes likely go into state reserves, not immediate use.
Instead, discussions may include other commodities such as corn, ethanol, wheat, or grain sorghum, which could influence acreage decisions and pricing opportunities.
Cattle Supplies Are Tight, Demand Remains Strong
The cattle market and beef market operate under different dynamics.
Suderman highlights:
U.S. cattle numbers at the lowest level in roughly 70 years
Beef supplies slightly higher due to record carcass weights and imports
Beef demand remains very strong
He cites a Kansas State study showing 86% of recent beef price increases stem from demand, not supply constraints.
Fertilizer Relief Looks Unlikely
Suderman does not expect meaningful fertilizer price relief in 2026.
He points to energy and fertilizer infrastructure damage in the Middle East, large global purchases signaling concern over availability, and an extended period of reduced production.
He suggests watching Australia's winter wheat crop as an early indicator of how fertilizer availability may impact global production.
Suderman's Advice: Stay Defensive and Flexible
Suderman closes with guidance that continues to apply in headline-driven markets.
“We have to be defensive in our marketing — knowing our margins and keeping some flexibility for when opportunities come.”
— Arlan Suderman
With markets in a lower-price cycle and rallies often short-lived, Suderman encourages producers to protect margins, focus on long-term viability, and remain flexible rather than chasing uncertain prices moves.
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