Ag Econ Update: Arlan Suderman, StoneX Group Inc. | December 1, 2025

Interview Recorded December 1, 2025

In a market cycle shaped by shifting global demand and stubborn macroeconomic pressures, StoneX Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman joins Tyne Morgan to break down the real state of today’s agricultural markets. With inflation trends cooling unevenly, geopolitical conflicts disrupting trade routes, and lingering questions about global purchasing power, Suderman underscores how fragile the balance has become between supply expectations and actual demand.

Grain markets, in particular, continue to wrestle with mismatched fundamentals. Despite historically strong U.S. yields, demand from key importers remains inconsistent as global buyers grow more price-sensitive and increasingly willing to source from lower-cost competitors like Brazil and the Black Sea region. Suderman cautions that even modest shifts in South American production or currency dynamics could tip the scales, influencing price movement far more quickly than many producers expect.

Livestock, meanwhile, tells a different story. Tight supplies continue to support cattle prices, but Suderman notes that consumer behavior — squeezed by higher living costs — remains a wild card heading into 2026. Poultry and hog sectors face their own balancing acts as producers respond to margins that are improving but still vulnerable to fluctuations in feed costs and export channels.

Layered on top of these market forces is a broader macroeconomic uncertainty: slowing global economic growth, central bank policies that remain in flux, and energy markets reacting to both geopolitical and seasonal factors. Suderman emphasizes that these crosswinds not only influence commodity pricing but also shape risk-management decisions producers make right now, well ahead of planting season.

Ultimately, Suderman paints a picture of an ag economy at an inflection point — one where opportunity exists, but not without a clear-eyed understanding of global competition, demand volatility, and the weight of macroeconomic forces. Success in this environment, he argues, will require discipline, timing, and a willingness to adapt as fast as the markets themselves.