Crop Tour Takeaways: Tyne Morgan Interviews Peter Meyer on Current Ag Economy Outlook
Interview Recorded August 27, 2025
In a timely and insightful conversation, Peter Meyer of Muddy Boots Ag shares boots-on-the-ground observations from a recent crop tour across the Midwest. His candor cuts through market noise to reveal the reality behind current U.S. corn and soybean conditions, the global demand picture, and the mounting pressure on American farmers. From unexpected disease outbreaks to market “rhetoric fatigue,” Peter lays out the forces shaping the ag economy today—and what might turn the tide tomorrow.
Crop Tour Insights: What’s Really in the Fields?
Meyer reports that while crops looked good from the road, field inspections told a different story. Many corn fields appeared to be maturing too quickly with declining test weights and premature signs of drying out—raising red flags for quality and yield potential.
Southern rust, tar spot, and leaf blight were more prevalent than expected, especially in Illinois and Iowa. Corn ears were still showing a milk line and not filling out, which could lead to disappointing weight during harvest. As Meyer puts it, the crop "ran out of gas."
Demand Drought & Market Malaise
Despite strong corn export sales, the market remains skeptical. Why? Because “rhetoric is cheap,” Meyer says, pointing to a lack of real follow-through—especially from China, the world’s largest soybean buyer.
With no meaningful soybean trade activity from China on the books and no robust domestic biofuels policy in play, the soybean market is stuck. Meyer believes demand—both international and domestic—is the missing link holding prices back.
Soybean Crop: Hope on Hold
Soybean pod counts looked great during crop tour, especially in Iowa. But the August heat and dryness have raised concerns about the crop’s ability to finish strong. Meyer admits he’s “killed more soybean crops in his career than [he] cares to remember,” but remains cautiously hopeful—pending September rainfall.
If moisture doesn’t return, soybean yields may dip from Pro Farmer’s 53 bu/ac estimate down to 52 or even 51.5.
Trade Pause with China: A Critical Bottleneck
Meyer is blunt: we’re in a trade pause with China, and it's weighing heavily on both soybean and corn markets. Without Chinese purchases, even positive domestic sales numbers can’t move the needle much.
Even if China returns to the table, logistics concerns—including low river levels and limited export capacity—may hinder shipment timing and create bottlenecks.
Crop Insurance & 2025 Acreage Outlook
Crop insurance policy changes are adding new wrinkles. An increase in subsidy levels (up to 80% for some area endorsements) means many farmers will be insured at high levels—even if markets tank.
Meyer suggests this could result in fewer acres left fallow than expected in 2025, as insurance buffers financial risk. But with banks tightening their lending criteria, some marginal acres may still be sidelined.
Can the Ag Economy Turn Around?
What could turn the tide?
• A strong U.S. biofuels policy to stimulate domestic demand.
• Chinese re-entry into the soybean market.
• A weather scare in South America to jolt global supply assumptions.
• Interest rate cuts to ease farm operating costs.
But until then, farmers are in survival mode—trying to plant what loses the least amount of equity. As one farmer put it: “I’m just figuring out what crop will lose me the least money.”
Meyer’s Final Word
Farming is cyclical. While we’re deep in the trough now, Peter Meyer believes recovery is coming—eventually. A shakeout in land prices, fertilizer costs, and possibly even farm consolidation is part of the cycle.
Until then, resilience, realistic expectations, and watching the demand side closely will be critical.